It’s happening again — the kind of crypto rally that makes even the skeptics glance at Bitcoin charts over their morning coffee. On Thursday, Bitcoin pushed above the $118,000 mark, notching a fresh 2% gain and building on the 4.5% jump it logged just a day earlier.
The timing? Almost poetic. October has long been a golden month for Bitcoin, so much so that the community has jokingly nicknamed it “Uptober.” If you’ve been around the crypto world for a while, you know the phrase isn’t just meme fuel, it’s rooted in a surprisingly strong historical trend.
Why “Uptober” Matters
Let’s take a step back. Data from Compass Point Research shows that in the past 12 years, Bitcoin has risen 10 times in October. That’s not a fluke, that’s a pattern. And patterns, especially in volatile markets like crypto, have a way of shaping investor psychology.
It’s not just about October, either. The entire fourth quarter has been a historically friendly stretch for Bitcoin. In fact, the crypto giant has posted gains in four of the last five Q4 periods. When you combine that with the relief of getting past September (a month that usually weighs Bitcoin down), it feels like the perfect setup.
But here’s the twist this year: Bitcoin actually ended September higher by about 4%. Instead of limping into October, it walked in with its head held high. Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point, put it bluntly: “That raises the bar for October gains.”
And he might be onto something.
From Fear to Bounce: The $108K “Scare”
Just a few weeks ago, things weren’t looking so bright. Market jitters — tied to everything from global economic uncertainty to whispers of a U.S. government shutdown — sent Bitcoin sliding toward $108,000. For some, it looked like the beginning of another bearish breakdown.
But here’s the thing: markets love to play tricks. Those sharp dips that spook investors often turn into setups for the next rally. Engel even called it a “false downside breakout,” the kind of move that shakes out weak hands before the real climb begins.
If you’ve been following crypto long enough, you’ve seen this movie before. The script usually goes: panic, dip, recovery, and then momentum. That’s exactly what seems to be happening now.
Beyond Seasonality: The Bigger Forces at Play
Of course, Bitcoin’s rally isn’t just about the calendar. Wall Street analysts are pointing to other catalysts that could keep the momentum alive through October and beyond.
One big factor? Liquidity. The Treasury General Account, essentially the U.S. government’s checking account, is well-funded at the moment. That means less pressure to pull money into bonds and away from riskier assets like crypto. In plain English: there’s still enough money sloshing around the system for Bitcoin to grab a slice.
Another under-the-radar but powerful driver is the surge in stablecoin activity.
The Stablecoin Effect
If you’re new to the term, stablecoins are digital tokens pegged to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar. They act as the glue between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem. And right now, that glue is spreading faster than ever.
Samir Kerbage, CIO at Hashdex, put it simply: “The next wave of crypto adoption will come from stablecoin adoption.” According to him, the impact won’t show up overnight, but within six to twelve months, it could become a major price driver for the broader market.
The numbers back him up. Circle’s USDC — one of the biggest stablecoins out there — saw its supply jump 19% in Q3, reaching $73.6 billion. For context, it grew just 2% in the previous quarter. That’s not just growth; that’s acceleration.
Jeff Cantwell, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, noted that this expansion couldn’t come at a better time. With Q4 historically being strong for crypto, the rising demand for stablecoins might provide extra fuel for Bitcoin and friends.
And here’s another interesting nugget: USDC demand isn’t concentrated in one place. About 62% live on Ethereum, 14% on Solana, and 8% on Hyperliquid, showing how adoption is spreading across different ecosystems.
Why This Rally Feels Different
Crypto rallies often come with hype, noise, and plenty of FOMO. But this time, the mix of factors feels more… grounded. Instead of just speculative buzz, we’re seeing real structural support:
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A historically bullish calendar month.
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A liquidity environment that isn’t choking off capital.
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A boom in stablecoin adoption, hinting at deeper integration between crypto and everyday finance.
It’s a cocktail that tastes less like wild speculation and more like measured optimism.
That doesn’t mean the road ahead will be smooth. Anyone who has held Bitcoin knows volatility is part of the deal. Sudden dips, wild headlines, and regulatory debates are all still on the table. But the foundation for this rally feels sturdier than some we’ve seen in the past.
What Investors Should Watch Next
So, where do things go from here? A few things stand out:
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October Momentum
If Bitcoin keeps climbing, it’ll reinforce the “Uptober” narrative even more. That could bring sidelined investors back in, creating a self-fulfilling cycle. -
Stablecoin Growth
Keep an eye on USDC’s supply and adoption trends. If the expansion continues into Q4, it may act as a tailwind not just for Bitcoin but for the entire crypto market. -
Macro Signals
U.S. government funding debates, interest rate chatter, and global market sentiment can all swing Bitcoin’s price in the short term. Don’t ignore them. -
Altcoin Correlation
Historically, when Bitcoin rallies, altcoins like Ethereum and Solana eventually follow. If you’re diversified, that’s worth remembering.
Here’s What This Really Means
When you step back, this rally isn’t just about Bitcoin crossing another flashy number. It’s about psychology, timing, and adoption all colliding at once.
Think of it like this: the market just went through a stress test in September, and instead of breaking down, Bitcoin bounced. Stablecoins are quietly building bridges between crypto and traditional money. And the calendar — for once — seems to be on the side of investors.
Does that guarantee new all-time highs by year’s end? No. But it does suggest that crypto’s story in 2025 is far from over — in fact, it might just be entering a new chapter.
Final Thoughts
I’ve watched Bitcoin rallies come and go, some built on nothing more than hype, others on genuine shifts in adoption. This one feels closer to the latter. The $118K milestone isn’t just another number; it’s a signal that despite all the doubts, debates, and downturns, crypto keeps finding ways to climb back.
If you’ve ever sat on the sidelines wondering when to pay attention again, “Uptober” might be your cue.
Whether you’re a long-term believer, a cautious trader, or just crypto-curious, one thing is clear: Bitcoin’s resilience is hard to ignore.
